NFL Week 16 Football Picks

However, this team needs a revival-tent style awakening after the appalling lack of heart, focus and execution displayed last week in Pittsburgh. He is now one of those few QBs who can complete passes into one-foot windows. A job somewhere else, so that Washington can recover some of the cash they spent on Robert Griffin III. At an overall ranking of 24th, that’s exactly what they are. If Dallas wins, the Eagles can’t clinch Sunday night and the Philly coach may pull some starters. New Orleans must run the ball to win on the road and the Panthers only allowed 97.3 yards per game over the last month. He’s less than 400 yards shy of being the first Dolphins QB since Dan you-know-who to have a 4,000-yard season.

Statistics from: Pro-Football-Refernce.com, NFL.com, and Three-Week Stats from USAToday.com, CBSSports.com

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens. The promising offense has dropped to a pedestrian 25 points per contest this month. And the Seahawks special teams have given up 19 punt return yards all year. QB Carson Palmer has an injured elbow that may be a problem and star wideout Larry Fitzgerald is coming off a concussion. Coach Chip Kelly will know at kickoff whether Dallas won over Washington. Posluszny has labored in obscurity while turning in a rather amazing season in Florida: he is second in the NFL with 139 tackles. Let’s see how well backup QB Kellen Clemens does versus a Bucs secondary giving up fewer than 200 passing yards in the last three games. This is the matchup of under-performing squads. That just about sums up this season.

Dallas QB Tony Romo needs to join a recovery group for QBs who think they have to win the game single-handedly. Now starting WRs are returning balls–never an ideal situation.

Straight Up: Jets at home

Against the Spread: Jets -2.5

Straight Up: Chicago (unless Dallas loses earlier in which case you should switch to the Eagles)

Against the Spread: Chicago +4

Dallas Cowboys at Washington. However, in the past three weeks (one of which featured only a third-string RB) the Vikings have averaged: 148.3 rushing yards, 295 passing yards, 443.3 total yards and 32.3 points. However, the Steelers are essentially playing for pride after an abysmal first two-thirds of the season and the Packers are hanging around in the NFC North without their starting quarterback only courtesy of Detroit’s and Chicago’s inability to close out the division. That’s the best thing this team has done in two months.

Jets’ rookie signal-caller Geno Smith has not had an easy time of it, averaging less than 150 passing yards this month. Philip Rivers was the president of this group the past few years. On the other side, LeSean McCoy is one of the most dangerous backs in the NFL: “Shady” is averaging five yards per carry and 11.3 yards per reception.

Pats QB Tom Brady gets his taller red zone targets back this week in WRs Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson (probably). In fact, the most points that the Saints have managed on the road all season were 27 against New England–and they still lost. The defense has given up 27 points per game. Both QBs can be had in the interception department.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions. The Chargers made the Denver defense look like a bottom-third unit last week. Spiller will need to run up and down the gridiron: Buffalo’s rushers have contributed 153.3 yards each of the last three Sundays, while Miami’s D has allowed only 93 rushing yards. Without dominant D-lineman Justin Houston, KC’s D isn’t as fierce and has allowed 25.3 points over the last three games. Roddy White, Julio Jones and Steven Jackson haven’t been healthy and the team could only muster 262 passing yards and fewer than 80 rushing yards over the year. Add in my choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year, WR Keenan Allen (seven touchdowns and 14.8 yards per catch), and Rivers has more to work with than in recent memory. Their pass rush is inconsistent on a line that has lost two starters in three weeks, the linebackers vacillate from being playmakers to looking like they missed “Run D 101″ in training camp and the secondary is susceptible to the big play.

The Raiders, behind unlikely starting QB Matt McGloin, have scored more than 27 points over the last three Sundays, but have given up 41.3 and are -9 in turnovers! Hard to win with that ratio. He has contributed over 1,000 combined yards after missing the first four games of the year. With 77 total touches thus far in December, Bears RB Matt Forte has added 457 yards and a score to his team’s offense. They will face a second-year Seattle QB in Russell Wilson who has 3077 aerial yards, 24 TDs and only 8 INTs. Meanwhile, the Ravens D is rallying and has surrendered 20.7 points on average over the last three weeks.. If the Cardinals don’t win against Seattle in Seattle, their playoff hopes are done. Throw in the fact that Danny Woodhead and featured back Ryan Mathews are combing for almost 140 rushing yards each game of the past three weeks. Return specialist Trindon Holliday seems to be paralyzed with fear that he’ll drop the ball yet again. Miami’s rushers Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas (who is questionable) have run for 131.3 per contest themselves this month; Buffalo is surrendering 158.3 rushing yards over the same period. In that Pittsburgh blizzard he also threw three scores. Louis has a ferocious defense, but their franchise QB can’t stay healthy. Yes, of course they need to run the ball more. The defense should be the second coming of the Steel Curtain and yet they couldn’t beat a Ravens team that has no running game!

Then there’s the return game. Starting rusher Willis McGahee may be back from concussion, but Edwin Baker made an impact in his first chance on the gridiron after two well-traveled years in the League. Both teams are almost guaranteed a place in the post-season, but the Panthers can perhaps steal the division if they win over New Orleans here. There is an eighty percent chance of rain. Come on, Cincy–prove you belong at the table. Rex Ryan finally got a “ground and pound” running game and it may be too late to save his job. It’s hard to imagine the Colts being able to prevail at Arrowhead, where the wind chill will feel like -11 degrees and there is a significant chance of snow.

Whichever team is less neurotic at this junction will win–whoever that is. St. There is a strong chance of rain, but it should be in the 40s.

Jacksonville has shown steady improvement under new coach Gus Bradley and both locker room and fan base are feeling a pulse. As if they hadn’t experienced enough bad fortune, the Falcons get to travel across country to play the formidable 49ers–in the last regular season game to ever be played at Candlestick. Aaron Rodgers is still trying to recover from a broken collarbone and both teams have 11 players on I-R. But you’d better be running quickly, because when your D gives up 35 points per game, the offense has to score 40. Louis Rams. As a unit, this offense has slammed opponents with an average of 43 points per game on the last three Sundays. He’ll be without WR Stevie Johnson, who is dealing with a family death. There are 22 players on the Browns injury report. Gentlemen, start your running backs. However, the enigmatic rusher has had less than 20 carries in each of the last three games. It’s hard to believe that the Giants would fire the coach/general manager tandem of Tom Coughlin and Jerry Reese after two Super Bowls in five years, but some big changes are coming certainly.

Washington QB Kirk Cousins knows that he is playing for a job next year. In the same time period a Bengals offense featuring one of the league’s best receivers in A.J. Until Reid wears him down through overuse, No. If the Saints win, they lock up the NFC South title. QB Colin Kaepernick will be happy if a concussion keeps Atlanta Safety Thomas DeCoud sidelined. Against the Patriots in Week 15, Tannehill completed more than 67% of his passes for three scores and zero interceptions. That’s just not fair.

The stat here is that the Dolphins defense has given up only 17 points per game on average this month. Bills RBs Fred Jackson and C.J. Like many dome teams, the Rams are hard to beat on their home field. Well, Carolina is indeed impressive defensively with only 19 points allowed per game over the past three weekends, but New Orleans has scored only 18 points during that time. The Chargers are hanging onto playoff hopes by the tips of their electrified toenails.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars. The 60% chance of rain will favor the Jets rushing attack.

Change will be arriving in the Motor City as well if this talent-laden Lions squad misses the playoffs when injuries should have handed them the NFC North title on a tray. Their passing game hovers at a mere 175 yards, but the rushing attack is strong and their defense is surrendering 11 fewer points per game than their opponents.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks. It may be difficult for the Browns to generate offense without TE Jordan Cameron.

Straight Up: Chargers

Against the Spread: Chargers -9.5

The Bucs defense is also coming along and the team has possibly found its franchise QB in Mike Glennon. Bill Belichick’s D is actually giving up 27 points per game recently. We’ll see what kind of shape Briggs is in as he tries to keep up with the lightening fast Eagles offense.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills. It will be warm with a 60% chance of rain late. Chicago has given up a whopping 179 yards per game to opposing rushers over the last three games.

Indy QB Andrew Luck knows what it’s like not to have WRs. Rivers is fifth in total passing yards, possesses an almost 70% completion rate with 8.4 yards per pass. Speedy WRs Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones are more than happy to run under those passes and rookie wideout Marlon Brown is turning out to be the Raven’s best gift this season–along with the return of Flacco’s favorite clutch outlet, TE Dennis Pitta. The Titans are on a skid started by the first-round pick of QB Jake Locker, who simply cannot remain injury-free, and shaky O-line play on a team coached by a Hall of Fame offensive lineman.

Straight Up: 49ers

Against the Spread: 49ers -12.5 (Atlanta is 5-12 ATS in last 17 games)

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers. Before jumping to conclusions about the warm weather ‘Fins, remember that they shellacked the Steelers two weeks ago in a snowstorm. The NFL was probably envisioning a Super Bowl re-match on the frozen tundra. And that doesn’t include his 489 rushing yards. Stupendous Washington LB London Fletcher has announced his retirement–doubtless in an attempt to get his teammates to play with pride at home against the rival Cowboys. However, Coach Pete Carroll apparently has an inexhaustible supply of well-trained DBs, since whoever he plugs in there seems to play quite well, led by top CB Richard Sherman.

Kelly’s system may only be averaging 29.3 points recently, but they seem able to adapt to weather conditions and professional defenses with equal alacrity.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers. That’s fortunate, since they lost stellar rookie safety Tyrann Mathieu for the season. Defensively, the Colts just lost anchor LB Pat Angerer to I-R. QB Nick Foles is having a frankly spectacular sophomore season (23 TDs to 2 INTs), but the ‘Iggles defense is extremely uneven. Jags star RB Maurice Jones-Drew is questionable, hampering an offense that has become almost respectable in recent weeks with an over-300 yard average and 26.3 points per game. These two perennially strong teams have struggled this season, but through grit and sheer winning tradition are on the cusp of post-season qualification. Keep your eye on rookie Rams rusher Zac Stacy and rookie WR Tavon Austin–the fastest man in the 2013 draft. Their “backup” quarterback RGIII is exhibiting Herculean control on the sidelines while Coach Shanahan (and offensive coordinator Shanahan-the-Younger) are trying to prove that with a QB who “fits their system,” they can be superstar coaches: read as “it was all Griffin’s fault.”

Straight Up: Ravens

Against the Spread: Raven -1.5

They have the daunting task of taking on a Seahawks defense that over the past three weeks has given up 77.3 rushing yards, 151.7 passing yards, 229 total yards and 8.7 points. In their own laid back SoCal way, Chargers fans should be rocking against the Silver and Black this week. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles is the new LeSean McCoy/Brian Westbrook in Andy Reid’s offense. The defense is improving, which is a minor miracle considering that the linebacking corps is composed entirely of men who were not starters in September. If you’ve missed the Josh Gordon explosion, you might want to check out the second-year WR (though the Jets D is reasonably good and has been limiting passers to less than 300 yards).

Straight Up: Chiefs

Against the Spread: Chiefs -6.5

Statistically, this one breaks in the Jaguars’ favor. Cincy is undefeated at home and this would be an excellent week to continue that trend as they fight to hold onto the AFC North title. Jacksonville’s defensive heart, LB Paul Posluszny, is hampered by a groin injury. Both teams have abysmal records ATS–so it’s a toss up.

The Bengals strong defense should be able to stomp on the Vikings–even with the return of reigning MVP Adrian Peterson at RB. If Dallas loses this game and Philly wins Sunday night, the Eagles will win the division, Dallas will not make the playoffs and heads will roll in Big D. His aerial game has crashed since Reggie Wayne’s injury. Rivers is having an MVP season (were it not for the stratospheric performance of Sports Illustrated’s Athlete of the Year, Peyton Manning). The return of LB Lance Briggs should help a reeling D that has allowed almost 27 points per contest in the past month. It’s possible as long as Joe Flacco’s knee truly is sound and they can mount something approaching a believable run threat. Neither QB will be heading to Hawaii, but Fitzpatrick is averaging seven yards per pass and is completing almost 62% of his throws. Hence their 6-8 record.

If you haven’t been watching Miami football recently, tune in to check out the meteoric rise of QB Ryan Tannehil. Time for someone to start doing a credible Bob Sanders impression.

The Ravens have to outscore the Patriots.

The Ravens cannot run the ball to save their souls, forcing QB Joe Flacco to dazzle football fans everywhere with one of the strongest arms in the NFL. If there are undisputed leaders on offense and defense, they certainly haven’t announced their presence loudly enough for fans to be able to identify them. Fifteen. If the Cowboys lost, the Eagles can sew up the division title with a win here. The Giants offensive line all went over-the-hill at once, the star WR decided not to perform his job, the running backs were a revolving door of injuries and the defense forgot how to rush the passer and tackle. The 25-year-old averaged 46.1 yards per punt with a long of 66 and 10 punts nailed inside the 20-yard line.

Straight Up: Seahawks

Against the Spread: Cardinals +10.5

Straight Up: Bengals

Against the Spread: Bengals -6.5

The Texans interviewed former Bears coach Lovie Smith this week. Backed by this rushing weapon, Alex Smith continues his winning ways with 23 touchdowns to six interceptions this year–with essentially one A-level WR. Good luck to backup Bills QB Thaddeus Lewis.

Straight Up: Rams

Against the Spread: Rams -4

Straight Up: Washington

Against the Spread: Washington +3.5

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles. “The Amish Rifle” should be able to make something out of that group if RB Chris Johnson has a decent day. Coach Greg Schiano needs to buy Glennon an exceptional Christmas present, because he was on his way out of town on a rail before the calm and lanky rookie took the reins.

Straight Up: Panthers

Against the Spread: Panthers -3

Then there’s the Jay Cutler factor. Injured rookie QB Case Keenum proved to no one that he is an NFL QB and now Matt Schaub will be back under center. Fortunately, the running back team of Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory has been grinding out 133 rushing yards on average. However, the Jets are only scoring about 20 points while allowing almost 27. Well that’s okay, because the Saints can barely manage 58 rushing yards per contest of late. They don’t have a franchise QB, their expensive first-round RB can’t stay on the field and once again their best offensive weapon is PK Sebastian Janikowski (and he’s having a down year). Cutler and backup Luke McCown have led their offense to an average of 34.3 points in the last three weeks. Both teams must win to stay in contention for their divisional titles. It’s really not pretty in Raider Nation. Green has only put up 229 passing yards and 26.3 points per week.

Straight Up: Jaguars

Against the Spread: Jaguars +5.5

Straight Up: Steelers

Against the Spread: Steelers +2.5

Assumed facts: Carolina is a defensive powerhouse and the Saints are the most explosive offense in the NFC. Versatile WR Julian Edelman, having a banner year, could be the wild card in this game. He is questionable.

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans. These new “Monsters of the Midway” are beating up opposing secondaries almost as badly as their defensive predecessors beat up 1985 opponents. You’re on, guys.

Atlanta is matched up against a San Francisco D allowing only a touch over 14 points recently and a NIners offense featurig unstoppable force RB Frank Gore: 144.3 rushing yards for the team over the past three games, although versatile FB Bruce Miller broke his arm and will miss the rest of the season. Without Jones-Drew, Jordan Thomas contributed almost 150 total yards and Denard Robinson is a Brad Smith-esque threat (if he doesn’t fumble). That’s good news since backup TE Michael Hoomanawanui is now questionable, leaving two guys no one has ever heard of at the position.

The Saints need to prove they can win on the road against a good D and the Panthers need to prove that they can pass the ball with the big playoff teams. Although neither young team will be in the playoffs, both are up and comers. Of course, pretty isn’t exactly a benchmark.

Pittsburgh’s offense has come to life in recent weeks as the mix-and-match offensive line is protecting Ben Roethlisberger a bit better, Big Ben is getting the passes off more quickly and rookie rusher Le’veon Bell has proven to be a star in the making. Arizona’s only hope is a thoroughly respectable defense–best in the NFL against the rush. The Chargers defense has certainly come a long way since early disarray and are now giving up only 17 points per game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. See above on QBs who think they have to win it all alone and end up throwing a record number of interceptions. It could also be very warm on the Florida field on Sunday.

The Falcons have averaged less than 23 points per week. Both starting running backs are on I-R and the defense can’t seem to find its mojo. The team has 15 more turnovers given up than grabbed. The one thing certain in this game is that neither defense can stop anyone.

New coach Mike McCoy and QB Philip Rivers were made for each other. Denver will not win a Super Bowl if these two-thirds of the team do not take gigantic steps forward immediately. The kick coverage makes one’s knuckles whiten in anticipatory dread.

Straight Up: Lions

Against the Spread: Giants +9.5

Lambeau Field will have its frozen tundra, there will be snow in the morning and it will feel like 9 degrees Fahrenheit–all of which shouldn’t affect a thing.

Now that the NFL has deliberately started scheduling divisionally significant games over the last few weeks of the season, December football is even better! The NFC North, the NFC East, the NFC South and the AFC North divisional titles are all still up in the air and the American Conference features a fierce competition for the lone remaining Wild Card slot. What a surprise. Once again, Peyton Manning is left to score more than 35 points per game in order to secure a victory. High-priced WR Mike Wallace appears to have decided to start earning his money in the last few weeks and could be a significant factor in this playoff race.

On the other side of the ball, if the Bengals D can’t shut down Vikes QB Matt Cassel, they haven’t got a prayer against other AFC passers like Joe Flacco, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Can the resurgent Miami Dolphins edge out the reigning Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens? Can the Cincinnati Bengals hang on to a season that should have seen them as undisputed divisional champions?

Tennessee QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s weapons include dependable Nate Washington, promising sophomore Kendall Wright, former Niner TE Delanie Walker and perennial bad boy Kenny Britt. After personifying the epitome of a rusty passer in the first half last weekend, Cutler rallied after half-time for an electrifying fourth quarter in which he racked up 71 yards and two touchdowns, with no INTs and a 143.5 rating. Denver must win to keep their one-game lead over the Patriots in the AFC.

The strangest “fun fact” in this matchup is that both teams have lost to the out-of-contention Minnesota Vikings, which leads one to examine the respective running defenses.

Straight Up: Denver

Against the Spread: Denver -10

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs. Two starting CBs are suspended and Safety Kam Chancellor is questionable. That may impact a decent Indy D that’s been giving up less than 20 points recently. Conversely, the Panthers DeAngelo Williams/Mike Tolbert rushing duo is rumbling for 140.7 yards against a Saints D allowing 133 rushing yards on game days. The offense forces the ball to future Hall of Fame WR Calvin Johnson to the detriment of good sense in play-calling and Reggie Bush’s frequent injuries have prevented his expected impact on the rushing attack. It may be raining Sunday night, which could tip the scales towards Philly’s rushers. CB Champ Bailey swears he’ll be back Sunday, but after his seen-better-days play of last January, who knows if that is even a good thing?

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers. Of course the ability to throw passes to WRs Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall and TE Martellus Bennett would make any QB smile. Matthew Stafford has a rocket-launcher of a throwing arm, but his mechanics have disintegrated and his discipline is suspect.

It’s a bit difficult to imagine a football world in which a banged-up Cardinals offense can prevail in noisy Seattle. Romo has no defense and can’t set his feet to throw a pass without getting buried by 300-lb defenders. The Bengals also lost their punter to injury last week and acquired Shawn Powell, who last played for Buffalo in October. There is a chance of rain, which would help Carolina.

Straight Up: Dolphins

Against the Spread: Dolphins +3

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals. 25 will continue to wreak havoc

Donald M. Jones

Donald M. Jones

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